Commentary: Russia, Crimea and The Unraveling Of The Global World Order

"It is much easier at all times to prevent an evil than to rectify mistakes." - George Washington  in his letter to James McHenry, August 10, 1798

Crimea,  a cross road of humanity.  A place where languages, cultures and religion have clashed throughout the ages, often with devastating results.

This clash may yet repeat itself as world powers begin the long Napoleonic march toward  battlefields which have lain dormant for decades, but whose soil is deeply drenched with the blood from countless wars across the ages.

With the first wave of Russian hordes released into the bread basket of Asia, the lands of Moldavia, Walachia, and Balaclava will once again be stained red by the blood of innocents, and those invaders so set on taking its riches.

The great fort of Sevastopol may once again find its ramparts guarded the  Imperial Army of Mother Russia.  An army which so valiantly fought, only to lose these lands on many occasions throughout the last two centuries, once again finds its belligerent navy moored in Crimean ports, on a peace keeping mission to protect the Russian colonial population from its Ukranian overlord.

Before all is said and done the Crimea will have belonged to Asia's greatest empires, like a jewel in the crown of a conquering kings, Crimea over the ages has become the bane of its people, a symbol of dominance, a bastion of wealth for the taking, by the man most motivated, and well armed to do so.

This man in our time is named Vladimir Putin, who, if history is correct, may be  determined to define the current century as one of expansion, confrontation, and dominance over historically Russian territories.   Even China winces as mentions of Russian military aspirations.

Thus it is no wonder the story of this land will be written in the blood, as the  struggle to wrest its riches away from one or another world power, continues.

The great Imperial army may once again leave in its wake a smoldering path of devastation, genocide most probably followed by mass deportations, incarcerations and redistribution of wealth; all hallmarks of imperial might exerted over comparatively  defenseless states whose heads are exiled and too indecisive to even fire a shot.

In its wake Ukranian commanders submit willingly to their former Russian overlords, who in spite of the odds have defied history and returned to claim their prize:  The Black Sea, and all it contains. The coveted "warm water port" of which history dictates would be a dream never forgotten by history, and which gives the Russian navy access to both the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions.

In the middle huddled populations wait, ever so attentive to signs that the reaping has begun.    

From the great Khans, Tamerlane, the Ottomans,  Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler, the USSR, British Empire and the USA; all have battled  for hegemony over this region at one time or another over the past two centuries, culminating by the 21st century in a perilous stalemate which has defined the last few decades of international relations.

Whether during the Russian Revolution or the Cold War, the Ukraine and its Crimea have defined the extent of Russian global dominance, past which its power has often withered.  Today, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and Iran form that boundary.  Were one to include the Mediterranean as part of that "sphere of influence" this argument would indeed be unsettling.  Yet the Russian gaze is long, and its regional history bedevils the current world order.

On a freezing morning of  Feb 26th the onslaught of Russian hordes, dressed down to pass as "concerned citizens of Crimea"  occupied several government buildings throughout the Crimea setting off what has since become a global military and financial crisis.

The lightning strike infiltration of the country by civilian dressed special operation forces echoes of past invasions such as the insurgence of Russian hordes into Mauritania, Scandinavia and the rest of  Eastern Europe during World War II,
with its decade long endeavor into Afghanistan in 1981 being the most recent example.

With the current status of the Ukraine as a sovereign state up for question, the Crimea has become the West's "Rhineland" to Hitlers Operation: Schulung, as the Russian special operations forces deftly removed the Ukranian authorities from power with such ease as swatting a moth from ones face.  Even Stalin would smile at the audacity of his young apprentice Mr. Putin.

Behind it lay, not burning fields of corpse and demolished cities, but crowds of ethnic Russians, happily waiving banners of liberation, still high on the romance of bloodless revolution, a phrase which in itself is an oxymoron as by definition political revolutions require the sacrifice of life.  And where there is no sacrifice, indeed, there is no revolution.  This was a coup of the highest order, and in quick fashion making the US occupation of Iraq, and Afghanistan look like a blind mans fumbling in unfamiliar ground, a quagmire.

Nation building, being the nasty business that it is, is rarely bloodless, and the taking of Crimea, if history be our guide, may very well be the opening volley in a series of military actions which will be the undoing of world order itself, as traditional enemies, and old allies vie to engage in this confrontation.   Even a disinterested and uneducated on looker sees the obvious problem with this equation.

When nuclear powers collide in traditional or regional conflicts, the outcome can only be described as, catastrophic.  With our only memorable example known as the Cuban Missile crisis, history is devoid of prior case studies, as a confrontation of this nature would possibly destroy civilization as we know it and would negate leaving no one alive to write this particular chapter of mans history, traditionally known as Armageddon.

Sensing weakness and uncertainty the President of Russian Vladimir Putin, determined to make his mark on history and claim his destiny demonstrates his ability to exert power in the region, by following basic rules of war.  His opponent however finds himself befuddled as he fails to understand the strategy of global dominance.

As Sun Tzu once stated the height of strategy is to win a war without ever taking the field... the art of war is not destroying and leveling cities (Fallujah-Helmand-Tripoli), but rather taking them whole: Crimea.

Thus the young prince in an almost Machiavellian way  has inserted himself and his people into the proverbial rock and hard place.  Folly or wisdom, Sun Tzu's Art of War would advise exactly what he has done, as placing ones army in a position of which retreat is impossible is one of the keys to a successful war.

The army will fight with desperation and fierceness.  Unlike his opponent Mr. Obama has failed to rally his population, has demonstrated indecisiveness, and general incompetence, and looks to be as he is, politically, financially, and militarily weak.  More of a Chamberlain, rather than an FDR, or even Churchill.

Thus the Western world once again faces a Golden Horde, the invading Huns  which tore apart the Empires of the ancient world each in its turn, only to ultimately lose these gains in upcoming generations as these Asian hordes made the recurring strategic error: overreach.  Power like all other finite resources, wanes.

In a world where nations seek to exert global dominance over entire Hemispheres and regions, we may once again witness the destruction of world order, and fall of Empire, as both East and West clash in what can only be described as the greatest International incident between the East and West since the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan, creating a climate of fear, uncertainty and doubt in anyone's ability to create a meaningful peace.

Having taken the Crimea, Mr. Putin has turned to Kiev  and  seems bent on taking the ultimate prize back into the bosom of mother Russia.  With 90% approval ratings among Russian people, he as little in his way to stop him.

The Ukraine however lies in the underbelly of Eastern Europe, and being the nominal ally of NATO, this possible loss to the West could have a domino effect in the region.  With international law relegated to the trash bin of history, and the UN, WTO and G8, 20, and 100 seen as US pawns, little exists in international trade politics to deter Mr. Putin from his path.  A path which few conquerors have been able to resist, the open door to conquest.

How many more nations with Russian populations might invite this regional superpower to "save" them from "themselves", and forfeit their sovereignty without a fight?  And while states, nations and governments fall, what will the worlds remaining powers do?

Has the rule of international law become moot as the divide between East and West is once again described in terms of threats, sanctions, military operations, coup detat, assassinations, guerrilla insurgencies and propaganda wars being waged from the Phillipines to Spain and from Chechnya to Southern Africa.

Global war seems to become a question not of if, but rather of when?   And yet the populations of these concerned nations, which will be effectively vaporized in moments would a nuclear war to occur, continue to live as automatons, almost in a daze of Tweets and Facebook fronts,  engorged in a stupor of daily routine and relinquishing their futures and freedoms to people who have built caves in which the upper 1%  will surely hide, after using the Crimea as an excuse, to begin the short process of  unraveling the world.

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."
"I don't much care where –"
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go.” 

― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Written by 
Larenzo Wisdom