In March of 2014 the world governments and economies were shaken to their core as the Crimean population voted by a majority of 97% to secede from the greater Ukraine, and join the Russian Federation. This occurred with such lightning speed that world leaders stagger to provide more than a tepid response to blatant aggression.
This secession resulted from a mere three weeks of public demonstrations, rioting and general civil disobedience. Although it is alleged by Western nations that the Russian government manipulated these events, and later invaded illegally into the sovereign territory of the Ukraine, Russia's take over of the Crimean was done without firing a shot. Sun Tzu and Hitler would be proud.
Yet this story has just begun as Western powers "pivot" towards Russia, and struggle for a strategy to out wit the obviously well versed President Putin. Mr. Putin shows no signs of either halting or backing up from his advance, having committed his armed forces and his reputation (as well as tons of loot) on his ability to redraw the boundaries of the once great Russian empire, and thus rewrite history.
It seems that destiny has reared its head in favor of Mr. Putin's lurid adventure as he recently took the stage in front of his country rebutting to Western rebukes, and rather reveling in the thunderous, drawn out applause reminiscent of Stalins era where party loyalty was measured by ones lengthy applause.
He was not compelled to look far for approval however, as even mundane citizens eagerly supported his militant entry, and lightning speed annexation of the territory of a regional power, and globally significant country, the Ukraine.
Yet one is pressed to find President Putin's commitment of armed forces in the takeover of Crimea is an act of madness, as his seemingly effortless did not go without great forethought and planning. His decisiveness indicates several points of fact, for example:
1. He's committed.
2. His country is resolutely behind him.
3. World opinion is irrelevant.
4. He has the money and power to prosecute this campaign.
5. He will not likely stop at the Crimea.
Historically one could argue that, where the Crimea goes, the Ukraine follows, and as the Ukraine goes, Asia and eventually Europe follow, willingly or unwillingly. Thus Kiev is most likely a place which will have many unemployed politicians as the Russian government prepares to expand its re-absorption of its old colonies, and "clean house", so to speak.
This is not without risk however, as Russia's attempt to reabsorb its dismembered parts comes at a precarious time in history, and the ultimate costs could be devastating to the regional economy. The world economy itself is in a significant downturn, led by the richest nations, and this indeed brings back echoes of the preceeding decade leading up to World War II when the world economy was in a lengthy depression.
Wars are born poverty, and thrive on desperation as citizens permit their governments to do any manner of atrocities in order to defend from a real or perceived threat. For example there is a substantial regional war in Syria, with several simmering conflicts that are close to if, not contiguous to the Black Sea, placing Russia squarely in the conflict. Each of these conflicts were unthinkable less than a couple of years ago, and each has surpassed predictions in terms of viciousness, ferocity, and length.
As Russia fights for dominance over the Crimea and Ukraine, the contiguous territories will be placed on military high alert creating friction, if not outright war between the belligerents, including the EU, NATO, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Greece, the Balkans, and possibly Israel. No longer will local civil wars be contained within their regional boundaries, but rather an international war will erupt as Western and Eastern powers collide. Even China will have to make a decision.
Much of this has already occurred. The logical sum of these actions indicates that Russia bet that there will be little if any substantial military response from the US or NATO. This bet was correct, how long that tepid response will remain tepid is another question all together. This leads to the question of what in fact will the West do?
This question is better answered by putting it another way, WHAT CAN the US do?
If recent history is any indication, the resounding answer would be, very little.
In the typical bag of tricks of the White House JCS one would start off with:
1. Economic sanctions
2. Political sanctions
3. Preparations for defense of contiguous allied states
4. Political subterfuge
5. Preparations for a nuclear stand off, or war
This brings us to the point, which is that the Ukraine may sink the world for no other reason than it in fact, is the Ukraine. A state which was an essential part of the two preceding world wars, as well as a substantial player in the Cold War.
This is a state which falls within the NATO security zone, and essentially acts as a buffer between Russia and the EU. Having both treaties and shared economies a Russian invasion of the Ukraine as a whole would bring the NATO powers directly into conflict, resulting in one of the greatest potential disasters to face humanity since the Cuban missile crisis.
Were NATO to ignore or fail in its stated mission of providing peace and security within this region, NATO would be seen as promoting a policy of appeasement, thus inciting Mr. Putin to possibly absorb other lost Cold War colonies.
Thus we have a debacle beyond imagination which potentially threatens the existence of every living man woman and child. These facts in mind, "appeasement" and economic sanctions will most likely be the White House response to outright aggression.
Putin will become smug as he knows quite well that all other options include a possible pre-emptive strike against Russian forces, setting off a chain reaction in the region which may engulf China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans, Syria, Armenia, the Arab nations and the EU, and its NATO partners by extension.
Any pre-emptive non-nuclear strike, by a nuclear nation against another, will inevitably lead to a potential disaster of nuclear proportions. Thus we find that what happens in the Ukraine is relevant to every man woman and child, as the Ukraine crisis may very well, sink the world. And we pray, it does not.
By Larenzo Wisdom
This secession resulted from a mere three weeks of public demonstrations, rioting and general civil disobedience. Although it is alleged by Western nations that the Russian government manipulated these events, and later invaded illegally into the sovereign territory of the Ukraine, Russia's take over of the Crimean was done without firing a shot. Sun Tzu and Hitler would be proud.
Yet this story has just begun as Western powers "pivot" towards Russia, and struggle for a strategy to out wit the obviously well versed President Putin. Mr. Putin shows no signs of either halting or backing up from his advance, having committed his armed forces and his reputation (as well as tons of loot) on his ability to redraw the boundaries of the once great Russian empire, and thus rewrite history.
It seems that destiny has reared its head in favor of Mr. Putin's lurid adventure as he recently took the stage in front of his country rebutting to Western rebukes, and rather reveling in the thunderous, drawn out applause reminiscent of Stalins era where party loyalty was measured by ones lengthy applause.
He was not compelled to look far for approval however, as even mundane citizens eagerly supported his militant entry, and lightning speed annexation of the territory of a regional power, and globally significant country, the Ukraine.
Yet one is pressed to find President Putin's commitment of armed forces in the takeover of Crimea is an act of madness, as his seemingly effortless did not go without great forethought and planning. His decisiveness indicates several points of fact, for example:
1. He's committed.
2. His country is resolutely behind him.
3. World opinion is irrelevant.
4. He has the money and power to prosecute this campaign.
5. He will not likely stop at the Crimea.
Historically one could argue that, where the Crimea goes, the Ukraine follows, and as the Ukraine goes, Asia and eventually Europe follow, willingly or unwillingly. Thus Kiev is most likely a place which will have many unemployed politicians as the Russian government prepares to expand its re-absorption of its old colonies, and "clean house", so to speak.
This is not without risk however, as Russia's attempt to reabsorb its dismembered parts comes at a precarious time in history, and the ultimate costs could be devastating to the regional economy. The world economy itself is in a significant downturn, led by the richest nations, and this indeed brings back echoes of the preceeding decade leading up to World War II when the world economy was in a lengthy depression.
Wars are born poverty, and thrive on desperation as citizens permit their governments to do any manner of atrocities in order to defend from a real or perceived threat. For example there is a substantial regional war in Syria, with several simmering conflicts that are close to if, not contiguous to the Black Sea, placing Russia squarely in the conflict. Each of these conflicts were unthinkable less than a couple of years ago, and each has surpassed predictions in terms of viciousness, ferocity, and length.
As Russia fights for dominance over the Crimea and Ukraine, the contiguous territories will be placed on military high alert creating friction, if not outright war between the belligerents, including the EU, NATO, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Greece, the Balkans, and possibly Israel. No longer will local civil wars be contained within their regional boundaries, but rather an international war will erupt as Western and Eastern powers collide. Even China will have to make a decision.
Much of this has already occurred. The logical sum of these actions indicates that Russia bet that there will be little if any substantial military response from the US or NATO. This bet was correct, how long that tepid response will remain tepid is another question all together. This leads to the question of what in fact will the West do?
This question is better answered by putting it another way, WHAT CAN the US do?
If recent history is any indication, the resounding answer would be, very little.
In the typical bag of tricks of the White House JCS one would start off with:
1. Economic sanctions
2. Political sanctions
3. Preparations for defense of contiguous allied states
4. Political subterfuge
5. Preparations for a nuclear stand off, or war
This brings us to the point, which is that the Ukraine may sink the world for no other reason than it in fact, is the Ukraine. A state which was an essential part of the two preceding world wars, as well as a substantial player in the Cold War.
This is a state which falls within the NATO security zone, and essentially acts as a buffer between Russia and the EU. Having both treaties and shared economies a Russian invasion of the Ukraine as a whole would bring the NATO powers directly into conflict, resulting in one of the greatest potential disasters to face humanity since the Cuban missile crisis.
Were NATO to ignore or fail in its stated mission of providing peace and security within this region, NATO would be seen as promoting a policy of appeasement, thus inciting Mr. Putin to possibly absorb other lost Cold War colonies.
Thus we have a debacle beyond imagination which potentially threatens the existence of every living man woman and child. These facts in mind, "appeasement" and economic sanctions will most likely be the White House response to outright aggression.
Putin will become smug as he knows quite well that all other options include a possible pre-emptive strike against Russian forces, setting off a chain reaction in the region which may engulf China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans, Syria, Armenia, the Arab nations and the EU, and its NATO partners by extension.
Any pre-emptive non-nuclear strike, by a nuclear nation against another, will inevitably lead to a potential disaster of nuclear proportions. Thus we find that what happens in the Ukraine is relevant to every man woman and child, as the Ukraine crisis may very well, sink the world. And we pray, it does not.
By Larenzo Wisdom
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