Democracy Denied: the rise of political violence, and the extreme right : 2014

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Monday, March 31, 2014

The March Goes On: The Reconstruction of The Russian Federation: As the world looks on, Russia ups the ante in its bid to absorb old satellites, March 31 2014

"The thing about it is that the Pentagon, Washington, really doesn't know what the intentions are of the Russian troops built up across the boarder..."

CNN reporter March 30 2014 Karl Penhaul--

While standing in front of an entire Russian division entrenched across the Ukrainian border, veteran reporter Karl Penhaul seemed reticent to pin down the significance of men at arms.

In this situation it seems more relevant to consider what wasn't stated rather than what was. That the situation is indeed very serious is without doubt, and it is this state of emergency which enforces the reality that the taking of the entire Ukraine realistically becomes more of "when" rather than "if", leaving doubt in short supply as Ukrainians ponder their probable absorption into the New Russian Empire, as second class citizens.

These rather pro Russian reports follow equally evasive statements of the Obama administration, which doubts Russia's intention for an eminent attack, and re colonization of the greater Ukraine. A stepping stone to glory as Putin seems to enjoy the sport of highway robbery. That one does it with brigades of special forces makes it no less of a crime.

When one however points this out to the Russians they immediately respond that the defintion of criminality and law have become moot in the wake of the Iraqi, Somali, Yemeni, Afghani, Pakistani, Libyan and Syrian wars.

Although not offically called "wars" in the US, these actions were by all definitions, warfare, warlike and continue to date. All considered by many scholars to be wars wherein severe violations of human rights and international law continue to date, unchecked and un monitored.

Why the President of The United States Is Only "Highly Concerned"
In the wake of equally vague and suspicious comments by the Obama administration Americans have been led to believe that a Russian invasion of the Ukraine is somehow NOT imminent, and will "most likely not take place".

Using its highly effective and deadly weapon of "sanctions" and "harsh words" the West has lashed out at Russian imperialism with ... silence. As the Ukrainians ponder their allegiance to the Empire of Russia, diplomats in the West seem almost gleeful at these events. The EU fails to even suggest it will use force to prevent further escalation of the conflict. Conspiracy or appeasement? The world may never know.

Russian president Vladimir Putin seems to revel in the fact that his US counterpart has fumbled the international power ball. One would presume that Putin sees Barack Obama as weak, inexperienced and fundamentally incompetent in deadly game of international global power politics. In the nuclear world this

can be a fatal and globally devastating flaw.

In the face of this aggression however the Western powers express what one could describe as a 'political fart', in terms of outrage; a stark contrast to the angry howls for "intervention", "strategic strikes" and "no fly zones" proposed as responses to aggression of NATO's arch rogues such as: Saddam Hussein in Kuwait (formerly a part of Iraq), Muammar Qaddafi within his own country, the Taliban, and even the Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran during the revolution.

The current rogue which preoccupies the US these days being Syrian President Bashar al Assad whom the US administration has "vowed" to remove for aggression against his own people, and who incidentally, Russia has vowed to protect.

It seems that the two world powers have been locked in a conflict stretching a lot further back in time than March 2 2014. Therefore if America can do it, then 'why not us' says Vladimir Putin?

The Global Land Grab
While America colonizes nations far from its homeland, punishing the people with crushing economic sanctions and devastating invasions, Russia occupies former territories upon the invitation of its inhabitants and without firing a shot. Truly Amazing. This type of flare has not been seen since the start of WWII. The global lang grab.

Russia's invasion and preparation for the complete retaking of the Ukraine however constitute international, trans-border, and regional threats, violations of treaties, and UN law... yet this has elicited little more than economic sanctions against a few obscure and rather distant business enterprises, excluding Putin and his top regime officials, or the Russian public on a whole. Polls in fact suggest that Putins approval ratings have never been higher, even in the Crimea and Ukraine.

Back home, the US President Barack Obama "expressed concern" in dry professorial terms that lead one to believe he has no idea about the history of the region, even after severing on the Congressional Committee for the de-nuclearization of Cold War era regional powers. One would think he may be an expert in the politics of this region... yet he seems... out of his depth. In any case his leadership is less than inspiring.

The EU following suit even declined to feign concern for its Eastern European partner espousing a few tepid threats, but failing to support the US stance in combating Imperialism with "economic sanctions" the international equivalent of "peer pressure".

This lack of interest and alarm at the taking of the Crimean territory belies hubris in the NATO strategy (or non-strategy) toward Russia, which fundamentally assumes that Vladimir Putin will stop with the Crimea or even the Ukraine itself. History recalls a similar assumption made about both Stalin and Hitler.

In fact one of Hitler's prime objectives for long term longevity of the German Imperial regime was to take both the Ukraine and its Crimean peninsula as the worlds bread basket. This was a precursor to the taking of Easter Asia itself.

In the nuclear age however this miscalculation could have devastating results, as the world can hardly afford another Adolf Hitler. Yet ironically the same region which was so central to the first two World Wars, once again rises to front and center stage. In similar fashion world powers look on, and offer little more than a political yawn.

Strategy of 'appeasement

These events in Crimea will go down in history as a military and strategic success on behalf of Russia, the likes of which have not occurred since the Red Revolution.

If the taking of the Ukraine were the end all of this story it would be a great one, but as life goes this event is merely a precursor to several other pending and logical moves by the Putin government.

As little stands between the taking of the bread basket of the wold suggesting Putin would somehow "pull back from the edge" is little more than journalistic romanticism as every action of Putin since March 2 2014 has indicated his objectives stretch well beyond the Ukraine.

Xerxes may once again cross the Bosporus as Russian fleets grow in number, strength, and capabilities in the Mediterranean, extending its global military footprint well past its supposed "coveted" warm water port.

To apologize for their lack of alarm at "40,000 troops amassed" along the Ukrainian border ( however Ukrainian govt says the number is more around 88,000) Western officials have treated this event in the same manner the League of Nations treated Hitler prior at the invasion of the Rhineland, and well up to the taking of Poland: appeasement. Hitler went down in history as one of the worlds greatest conquerors, all made possible by political appeasement, war profiteering and salutary neglect.

The Western powers are far from the uncompromising and belligerent Spartans and Barack Obama is certainly not Leonidas. More of a Neville Chamberlain Barack Obama makes his offering of "earth and water" to the local conquering tyrant. It seems that Obama may go down in history as "The Great Appeaser".

Putin The Hun
Putin a notable military strategist and political genius who has held power since the 90's and fundamentally built the modern Russian has not only survived but also thrived in the heavy hitting Russian political landscape where viciousness is a prerequisite.

His deftness denotes study, strategy and daring of the kind which has set off revolutions in Russian for ages. Sensing weakness in his Western adversaries he does not hesitate to pretend that he cares much for their opinions, and doubts their commitment to confront his onslaught. His goals are clear, his objectives attainable, the rebuilding of the USSR began March 2, 2014.

The March Goes On

As Russian defensive positions being dug in around strategic positions establishing their base of operations and thus a strategic foothold for further military conquest, Western nations attempt to distance themselves politically in a bid to possibly avoid the inevitable conflict which may arise, adding folly to arrogance.

With the war on Terror over and the Islamic Jihad a simmering background of constant regional conflict. Russia has taken up its mantle and waded into the global land grab which has marked the beginning of the Twentieth Century. With the Ukraine the worlds third largest grain producer and a traditional appendage of their territory, it hung like a ripe apple waiting to be plucked. As the world looked on in disbelief the Ukraine was taken without a shot.

The march however has just began. Russian operations which are in full swing, include, according to reports include the massing of "tanks, personnel carriers, and attack helicopters along with possible up to 88,000 infantry. This occurs while the Ukrainian government itself fails to mount a significant reaction. Once again history is replete with parallels as the question of whether or not the Ukrainian army will even fight, is debated in news circles.

"Our goals are attainable"

The words of one Nazi general to the Fuhrer when asked if Moscow could be taken in a few months.

Yet in the same manner President Putin has been advised by his military leaders that the retaking of Russian satelites in this time of US military, economic and political weakness are completely realistic goals and while presage further conflict, these countries will most likely fold as rapidly as during the Cold War era. So far so good.

On the surface Russian officials speak of "military exercises in the region", however this motive fails to explain the aggressive and strategic positioning of its military forces along the Ukrainian border. After the Ukraine one can only guess at the direction of his growing army, and increased nuclear arsenal. Hubris is the folly of great leader throughout the ages, passivity is not.

The enormous expense of these moves further supports the conclusion that Russia fully intends to retake its former satellite, and in short order. Putin shows little sign of yielding any of his current momentum or de-escalation of the current crisis as the Russians propose "Federalization" of the Ukraine.

Are Putin's goals attainable?

reclaim territory losses after the Cold War
expand control of regional strategic finite resources
hedge in NATO along the Asian Axis
counterbalance Asian power away from a US-China-Japan axis towards a Russian-China-Korea axis
destabilize the global economy and US hegemony in Mid East and Africa
boost the Russian economy with military spending, and the "spoils of war" from colonized nations
regain its former glory and territory

15 Potential Targets
Possible Targets of land invasion will and may include:

Crimea (a region of the Ukraine, absorbed March 2014 into the Russian Federation)
Ukraine proper, former USSR satellite, petitioning for NATO entry
Georgia - NATO, former USSR satellite
Armenia - NATO former USSR satellite
Azerbaijan - former USSR satellite
Belarus - NATO, former USSR
Moldova - NATO, former USSR satellite
Croatia - NATO/EU
Romania - NATO/EU
Slovakia - NATO/EU
Lithuania - EU/NATO, former USSR satellite
Latvia - EU/NATO, former USSR satellite
Estonia - EU/NATO
Finland (regions) EU/NATO
Bulgaria - EU/NATO
Kazakhstan - former USSR satellite
Mongolia - former USSR satellite
Alaska - NATO, Continental USA

This list includes strategic regions which are potential and logical extensions of the traditional Asian land mass in itself seen as the domain of Russia.

States tend to expand to the limit of their ability to exercise meaningful control of any given territory. As US political and economic clout have waned in the beginning of the 21st Century the tendency of conflict between existing and rising power centers was inevitable.

The question however begs, where will this end? For the Nazi's it was the destruction of their entire country, and absorption into the EU Federation. For regional Russian satellites this fate may not be so bad, however the burning of Moscow could only conceivably result from a hot war that went nuclear.

While many believe nuclear war is in fact the goal of many world powers this is purely speculation, however the expressed and stated intent of all nuclear nations to use these weapons remains a looming specter threatening he existence of human life itself, thereby making any territorial gains a moot point.

Thus to argue President Putin "intends" a nuclear war is to suggest he is mad or lacks logic, and of course this would be folly, as he is quite logical. More likely the outward expansion of the Russian Federation will fulfill in the east what global powers have long wanted: a consolidation of the Asian continental governments into states under a federation.

This has been accomplished in the North American continent, and Europe, and is being constructed in South America, Africa, the Middle East, China and Russia.

Therefore a lack of interest in this ongoing drama may be due more to the prevailing belief that one day these regions will fall under the control of one Federation or another, as power centers consolidate into "Federations".

Rather than a prelude to global nuclear war, maybe the re colonization of the old USSR is the next stage of consolidation of global world order into regional federations, and the next stage in establishing the New World Order.

Recent history demonstrates that when the US gave Russia a free hand in Chechnya, the Russians gave the US a free hand in Afghanistan, and likewise China in Xinjaing province against the Ugayars. Today one hand continues to wash the other as governments throughout the world are toppled and incorporated into the envisioned matrix of global order.

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Analysis: Why The Ukraine Crisis May Sink The World

In March of 2014 the world governments and economies were shaken to their core as the Crimean population voted by a majority of 97% to secede from the greater Ukraine, and join the Russian Federation. This occurred with such lightning speed that world leaders stagger to provide more than a tepid response to blatant aggression.

This secession resulted from a mere three weeks of public demonstrations, rioting and general civil disobedience. Although it is alleged by Western nations that the Russian government manipulated these events, and later invaded illegally into the sovereign territory of the Ukraine, Russia's take over of the Crimean was done without firing a shot. Sun Tzu and Hitler would be proud.

Yet this story has just begun as Western powers "pivot" towards Russia, and struggle for a strategy to out wit the obviously well versed President Putin. Mr. Putin shows no signs of either halting or backing up from his advance, having committed his armed forces and his reputation (as well as tons of loot) on his ability to redraw the boundaries of the once great Russian empire, and thus rewrite history.

It seems that destiny has reared its head in favor of Mr. Putin's lurid adventure as he recently took the stage in front of his country rebutting to Western rebukes, and rather reveling in the thunderous, drawn out applause reminiscent of Stalins era where party loyalty was measured by ones lengthy applause.

He was not compelled to look far for approval however, as even mundane citizens eagerly supported his militant entry, and lightning speed annexation of the territory of a regional power, and globally significant country, the Ukraine.

Yet one is pressed to find President Putin's commitment of armed forces in the takeover of Crimea is an act of madness, as his seemingly effortless did not go without great forethought and planning. His decisiveness indicates several points of fact, for example:

1. He's committed.
2. His country is resolutely behind him.
3. World opinion is irrelevant.
4. He has the money and power to prosecute this campaign.
5. He will not likely stop at the Crimea.

Historically one could argue that, where the Crimea goes, the Ukraine follows, and as the Ukraine goes, Asia and eventually Europe follow, willingly or unwillingly. Thus Kiev is most likely a place which will have many unemployed politicians as the Russian government prepares to expand its re-absorption of its old colonies, and "clean house", so to speak.

This is not without risk however, as Russia's attempt to reabsorb its dismembered parts comes at a precarious time in history, and the ultimate costs could be devastating to the regional economy. The world economy itself is in a significant downturn, led by the richest nations, and this indeed brings back echoes of the preceeding decade leading up to World War II when the world economy was in a lengthy depression.

Wars are born poverty, and thrive on desperation as citizens permit their governments to do any manner of atrocities in order to defend from a real or perceived threat. For example there is a substantial regional war in Syria, with several simmering conflicts that are close to if, not contiguous to the Black Sea, placing Russia squarely in the conflict. Each of these conflicts were unthinkable less than a couple of years ago, and each has surpassed predictions in terms of viciousness, ferocity, and length.

As Russia fights for dominance over the Crimea and Ukraine, the contiguous territories will be placed on military high alert creating friction, if not outright war between the belligerents, including the EU, NATO, Iran, Turkey, Syria, Greece, the Balkans, and possibly Israel. No longer will local civil wars be contained within their regional boundaries, but rather an international war will erupt as Western and Eastern powers collide. Even China will have to make a decision.

Much of this has already occurred. The logical sum of these actions indicates that Russia bet that there will be little if any substantial military response from the US or NATO. This bet was correct, how long that tepid response will remain tepid is another question all together. This leads to the question of what in fact will the West do?

This question is better answered by putting it another way, WHAT CAN the US do?

If recent history is any indication, the resounding answer would be, very little.
In the typical bag of tricks of the White House JCS one would start off with:

1. Economic sanctions
2. Political sanctions
3. Preparations for defense of contiguous allied states
4. Political subterfuge
5. Preparations for a nuclear stand off, or war

This brings us to the point, which is that the Ukraine may sink the world for no other reason than it in fact, is the Ukraine. A state which was an essential part of the two preceding world wars, as well as a substantial player in the Cold War.

This is a state which falls within the NATO security zone, and essentially acts as a buffer between Russia and the EU. Having both treaties and shared economies a Russian invasion of the Ukraine as a whole would bring the NATO powers directly into conflict, resulting in one of the greatest potential disasters to face humanity since the Cuban missile crisis.

Were NATO to ignore or fail in its stated mission of providing peace and security within this region, NATO would be seen as promoting a policy of appeasement, thus inciting Mr. Putin to possibly absorb other lost Cold War colonies.

Thus we have a debacle beyond imagination which potentially threatens the existence of every living man woman and child. These facts in mind, "appeasement" and economic sanctions will most likely be the White House response to outright aggression.

Putin will become smug as he knows quite well that all other options include a possible pre-emptive strike against Russian forces, setting off a chain reaction in the region which may engulf China, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey, the Balkans, Syria, Armenia, the Arab nations and the EU, and its NATO partners by extension.

Any pre-emptive non-nuclear strike, by a nuclear nation against another, will inevitably lead to a potential disaster of nuclear proportions. Thus we find that what happens in the Ukraine is relevant to every man woman and child, as the Ukraine crisis may very well, sink the world. And we pray, it does not.

By Larenzo Wisdom

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

Commentary: Russia, Crimea and The Unraveling Of The Global World Order

"It is much easier at all times to prevent an evil than to rectify mistakes." - George Washington in his letter to James McHenry, August 10, 1798

Crimea, a cross road of humanity. A place where languages, cultures and religion have clashed throughout the ages, often with devastating results.

This clash may yet repeat itself as world powers begin the long Napoleonic march toward battlefields which have lain dormant for decades, but whose soil is deeply drenched with the blood from countless wars across the ages.

With the first wave of Russian hordes released into the bread basket of Asia, the lands of Moldavia, Walachia, and Balaclava will once again be stained red by the blood of innocents, and those invaders so set on taking its riches.

The great fort of Sevastopol may once again find its ramparts guarded the Imperial Army of Mother Russia. An army which so valiantly fought, only to lose these lands on many occasions throughout the last two centuries, once again finds its belligerent navy moored in Crimean ports, on a peace keeping mission to protect the Russian colonial population from its Ukranian overlord.

Before all is said and done the Crimea will have belonged to Asia's greatest empires, like a jewel in the crown of a conquering kings, Crimea over the ages has become the bane of its people, a symbol of dominance, a bastion of wealth for the taking, by the man most motivated, and well armed to do so.

This man in our time is named Vladimir Putin, who, if history is correct, may be determined to define the current century as one of expansion, confrontation, and dominance over historically Russian territories. Even China winces as mentions of Russian military aspirations.

Thus it is no wonder the story of this land will be written in the blood, as the struggle to wrest its riches away from one or another world power, continues.

The great Imperial army may once again leave in its wake a smoldering path of devastation, genocide most probably followed by mass deportations, incarcerations and redistribution of wealth; all hallmarks of imperial might exerted over comparatively defenseless states whose heads are exiled and too indecisive to even fire a shot.

In its wake Ukranian commanders submit willingly to their former Russian overlords, who in spite of the odds have defied history and returned to claim their prize: The Black Sea, and all it contains. The coveted "warm water port" of which history dictates would be a dream never forgotten by history, and which gives the Russian navy access to both the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions.

In the middle huddled populations wait, ever so attentive to signs that the reaping has begun.

From the great Khans, Tamerlane, the Ottomans, Napoleon, Stalin, Hitler, the USSR, British Empire and the USA; all have battled for hegemony over this region at one time or another over the past two centuries, culminating by the 21st century in a perilous stalemate which has defined the last few decades of international relations.

Whether during the Russian Revolution or the Cold War, the Ukraine and its Crimea have defined the extent of Russian global dominance, past which its power has often withered. Today, Syria, Turkey, Lebanon and Iran form that boundary. Were one to include the Mediterranean as part of that "sphere of influence" this argument would indeed be unsettling. Yet the Russian gaze is long, and its regional history bedevils the current world order.

On a freezing morning of Feb 26th the onslaught of Russian hordes, dressed down to pass as "concerned citizens of Crimea" occupied several government buildings throughout the Crimea setting off what has since become a global military and financial crisis.

The lightning strike infiltration of the country by civilian dressed special operation forces echoes of past invasions such as the insurgence of Russian hordes into Mauritania, Scandinavia and the rest of Eastern Europe during World War II,
with its decade long endeavor into Afghanistan in 1981 being the most recent example.

With the current status of the Ukraine as a sovereign state up for question, the Crimea has become the West's "Rhineland" to Hitlers Operation: Schulung, as the Russian special operations forces deftly removed the Ukranian authorities from power with such ease as swatting a moth from ones face. Even Stalin would smile at the audacity of his young apprentice Mr. Putin.

Behind it lay, not burning fields of corpse and demolished cities, but crowds of ethnic Russians, happily waiving banners of liberation, still high on the romance of bloodless revolution, a phrase which in itself is an oxymoron as by definition political revolutions require the sacrifice of life. And where there is no sacrifice, indeed, there is no revolution. This was a coup of the highest order, and in quick fashion making the US occupation of Iraq, and Afghanistan look like a blind mans fumbling in unfamiliar ground, a quagmire.

Nation building, being the nasty business that it is, is rarely bloodless, and the taking of Crimea, if history be our guide, may very well be the opening volley in a series of military actions which will be the undoing of world order itself, as traditional enemies, and old allies vie to engage in this confrontation. Even a disinterested and uneducated on looker sees the obvious problem with this equation.

When nuclear powers collide in traditional or regional conflicts, the outcome can only be described as, catastrophic. With our only memorable example known as the Cuban Missile crisis, history is devoid of prior case studies, as a confrontation of this nature would possibly destroy civilization as we know it and would negate leaving no one alive to write this particular chapter of mans history, traditionally known as Armageddon.

Sensing weakness and uncertainty the President of Russian Vladimir Putin, determined to make his mark on history and claim his destiny demonstrates his ability to exert power in the region, by following basic rules of war. His opponent however finds himself befuddled as he fails to understand the strategy of global dominance.

As Sun Tzu once stated the height of strategy is to win a war without ever taking the field... the art of war is not destroying and leveling cities (Fallujah-Helmand-Tripoli), but rather taking them whole: Crimea.

Thus the young prince in an almost Machiavellian way has inserted himself and his people into the proverbial rock and hard place. Folly or wisdom, Sun Tzu's Art of War would advise exactly what he has done, as placing ones army in a position of which retreat is impossible is one of the keys to a successful war.

The army will fight with desperation and fierceness. Unlike his opponent Mr. Obama has failed to rally his population, has demonstrated indecisiveness, and general incompetence, and looks to be as he is, politically, financially, and militarily weak. More of a Chamberlain, rather than an FDR, or even Churchill.

Thus the Western world once again faces a Golden Horde, the invading Huns which tore apart the Empires of the ancient world each in its turn, only to ultimately lose these gains in upcoming generations as these Asian hordes made the recurring strategic error: overreach. Power like all other finite resources, wanes.

In a world where nations seek to exert global dominance over entire Hemispheres and regions, we may once again witness the destruction of world order, and fall of Empire, as both East and West clash in what can only be described as the greatest International incident between the East and West since the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan, creating a climate of fear, uncertainty and doubt in anyone's ability to create a meaningful peace.

Having taken the Crimea, Mr. Putin has turned to Kiev and seems bent on taking the ultimate prize back into the bosom of mother Russia. With 90% approval ratings among Russian people, he as little in his way to stop him.

The Ukraine however lies in the underbelly of Eastern Europe, and being the nominal ally of NATO, this possible loss to the West could have a domino effect in the region. With international law relegated to the trash bin of history, and the UN, WTO and G8, 20, and 100 seen as US pawns, little exists in international trade politics to deter Mr. Putin from his path. A path which few conquerors have been able to resist, the open door to conquest.

How many more nations with Russian populations might invite this regional superpower to "save" them from "themselves", and forfeit their sovereignty without a fight? And while states, nations and governments fall, what will the worlds remaining powers do?

Has the rule of international law become moot as the divide between East and West is once again described in terms of threats, sanctions, military operations, coup detat, assassinations, guerrilla insurgencies and propaganda wars being waged from the Phillipines to Spain and from Chechnya to Southern Africa.

Global war seems to become a question not of if, but rather of when? And yet the populations of these concerned nations, which will be effectively vaporized in moments would a nuclear war to occur, continue to live as automatons, almost in a daze of Tweets and Facebook fronts, engorged in a stupor of daily routine and relinquishing their futures and freedoms to people who have built caves in which the upper 1% will surely hide, after using the Crimea as an excuse, to begin the short process of unraveling the world.

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?"
"That depends a good deal on where you want to get to."
"I don't much care where –"
"Then it doesn't matter which way you go.”

― Lewis Carroll, Alice in Wonderland

Written by
Larenzo Wisdom